FIRST ORDER AUTOREGRESSIVE MIXED EFFECTS ZERO INFLATED POISSON MODEL FOR LONGITUDINAL DATA - A BAYESIAN APPROACH

The First Order Autoregressive (AR(1)) Mixed Effects Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) Model was developed to analyze longitudinal zero inflated Poisson data through the Bayesian Approach. The model describes the effect of covariates via regression and time varying correlations within subject. Subjects are classified into a "perfect" state with response equal to zero and a Poisson state with response following a Poisson regression model. The probability of belonging to the perfect state or Poisson state is governed by a logistic regression model. Both models include autocorrelated random effects, and there is correlation between random effects in the logistic and Poisson regressions. Parameter estimation is investigated using simulation studies and analyses (both frequentist and Bayesian) of simpler mixed effect models. In the large sample setting we investigate the Fisher information of the model. The Fisher information matrix is then used to determine an adequate sample size for the AR(1) ZIP model. Simulation studies demonstrate the capability of Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of the AR(1) ZIP model for longitudinal zero inflated Poisson data. However, a tremendous computation time and a huge sample size are required by the full AR(1) ZIP model. Simpler models were fitted to simulated AR(1) ZIP data to investigate whether simplifying the assumed random structure could permit accurate estimates of fixed effect parameters. However, simulations showed that the bias of two nested models, ZIP model and mixed effects ZIP model, are too large to be acceptable. The AR(1) ZIP model was fitted to data on numbers of cigarettes smoked, collected in the National Longitudinal Study of Youth. It was found that decisions on whether to smoke and on the number of cigarettes to smoke were significantly related to age, sex, race and smoking behavior by peers. The random effect variances, autocorrelation coefficients and correlation between logistic and Poisson random effect were all significant

Fixed versus Mixed Parameterization in Logistic Regression Models: Application to Meta-Analysis

Three methods: fixed intercept generalized model (GLM), random intercept generalized mixed model (GLMM), and conditional logistic regression (clogit) are compared in a meta-analysis of 43 studies assessing the effect of diet on cancer incidence in rats. We also perform simulation studies to assess distributional behavior of regression estimates and tests of fit. Other simulations assess the effects of model misspecification, and increasing the sample size, either by adding additional studies or by increasing the sizes of a fixed number of studies. Estimates of fixed effects seem insensitive to increasing the sample sizes, but the deviance test of fit is biased. Conditional logistic regression avoids the possibility of bias when the number of studies is very large in a GLM analysis and also avoids effects of misspecification of the random effect distribution in a GLMM analysis, but at the cost of some information loss

Lobocrassins A–E: New Cembrane-Type Diterpenoids from the Soft Coral Lobophytum crassum

Five new cembrane-type diterpenoids, lobocrassins A–E (1–5), were isolated from the soft coral Lobophytum crassum. The structures of cembranes 1–5 were established by spectroscopic and chemical methods and by comparison of the spectral data with those of known cembrane analogues. Lobocrassin A (1) is the first cembranoid possessing an α-chloromethyl-α-hydroxy-γ-lactone functionality and is the first chlorinated cembranoid from soft corals belonging to the genus Lobophytum. Lobocrassins B (2) and C (3) were found to be the stereoisomers of the known cembranes, 14-deoxycrassin (6) and pseudoplexaurol (7), respectively. Lobocrassin B (2) exhibited modest cytotoxicity toward K562, CCRF-CEM, Molt4, and HepG2 tumor cells and displayed significant inhibitory effects on the generation of superoxide anion and the release of elastase by human neutrophils

Natural Product Chemistry of Gorgonian Corals of Genus Junceella—Part II

The structures, names, bioactivities, and references of 81 new secondary metabolites obtained from gorgonian corals belonging to the genus Junceella are described in this review. All compounds mentioned in this review were obtained from sea whip gorgonian corals Junceella fragilis and Junceella juncea, collected from the tropical and subtropical Indo-Pacific Ocean

The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) Band-1 Receiver

The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array(ALMA) Band 1 receiver covers the 35-50 GHz frequency band. Development of prototype receivers, including the key components and subsystems has been completed and two sets of prototype receivers were fully tested. We will provide an overview of the ALMA Band 1 science goals, and its requirements and design for use on the ALMA. The receiver development status will also be discussed and the infrastructure, integration, evaluation of fully-assembled band 1 receiver system will be covered. Finally, a discussion of the technical and management challenges encountered will be presented

Real-time Monitoring for the Next Core-Collapse Supernova in JUNO

Core-collapse supernova (CCSN) is one of the most energetic astrophysical events in the Universe. The early and prompt detection of neutrinos before (pre-SN) and during the SN burst is a unique opportunity to realize the multi-messenger observation of the CCSN events. In this work, we describe the monitoring concept and present the sensitivity of the system to the pre-SN and SN neutrinos at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), which is a 20 kton liquid scintillator detector under construction in South China. The real-time monitoring system is designed with both the prompt monitors on the electronic board and online monitors at the data acquisition stage, in order to ensure both the alert speed and alert coverage of progenitor stars. By assuming a false alert rate of 1 per year, this monitoring system can be sensitive to the pre-SN neutrinos up to the distance of about 1.6 (0.9) kpc and SN neutrinos up to about 370 (360) kpc for a progenitor mass of 30$M_{\odot}$ for the case of normal (inverted) mass ordering. The pointing ability of the CCSN is evaluated by using the accumulated event anisotropy of the inverse beta decay interactions from pre-SN or SN neutrinos, which, along with the early alert, can play important roles for the followup multi-messenger observations of the next Galactic or nearby extragalactic CCSN.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figure

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries